So...there are a few things on the docket today. I thought I'd throw a few links at you and some musings about each.
Let's get started!!
8th-grader Owen Groesser drained two 3-pointers last night in a middle school game. Wait--who cares? Well, nobody except the millions on Twitter and Facebook that hashtagged #GetOwenOnSportsCenter. Groesser is an average 8th grade student, minus the fact that he has Downs Syndrome. He is the teams' manager, and his coach put him in for the last 2 minutes of a half in his final home game. Groesser promptly drain not one-but TWO J's. Here is the link. Fantastic story.
The Upton brothers are reunited!!! Atlanta and Arizona pulled off a horrendously one-sided trade favoring the Braves last night. Atlanta got Justin Upton and a throw-in Chris Johnson (not the CJ0K. He's in the NFL) for 3B Martin Prado, SP Randall Delgado, and 3 minor leaguers. Yes, Prado is a excellent third-sacker, but the D-backs only get a year of him before he can bail via free agency. Delgado is a solid, but not even close to spectacular SP who may only contribute to the rotation, not improve it. And I don't name any of the minor league players because I haven't heard of them, and therefore don't care. The Braves get 3 years of discount top-5 outfielder for not much in return. Thank you and see you in the playoffs. Here's an overview of the trade.
The Lakers lost again. Howard slogged along defensively-again-and left the game after apparently re-injuring his shoulder. Kobe pretty much summed up the Lakers' season with one play: Lakers steal the ball and Kobe is on a 2-on-1 fast break. Advantage: Lakers. Kobe goes up for the dunk...and gets totally rejected by Tony Wroten. Wait...who??? Oh, he's a rookie. Kobe gets up off the floor and throws his fist in disgust and yells at the ref, immediately drawing a technical. Sux fo ya Mamba...
Watch the highlights here.
Quik reax: with the hot thing being stars splitting from small-market teams to play with each other (see the Celtics, Heat, and this year the Lakers), I have been waiting for-and been expecting-the one try to fail. Ladies and gentlemen, we have a winner. Would Dwight, Kobe, and Steve please step forward and receive your award!! This year's Lakers experiment blew up in their faces on a nuclear scale. It is sad watching players of the caliber of these three playing as lackadaisical ball as they are. They don't have a swiss-cheese defense; no, they have NO defense. Their offense can't keep up. Yes-a team that includes Superman, a Black Mamba, and a Hall of Fame point guard can't keep up. That's how bad this defense is leaking points. The NBA as of late hasn't really been known for defense, but this...this is literally fatal.
Finally--can we shut up about the whole Te'o debacle? I'm sick and tired of it. So he was a retard in his relationships and/or his "friend" was a total d**k. I don't think this should make as big of news that it has. ESPN complains that he's doing it to garner attention for himself. Well, with the amount of attention that they are giving him is only making the whole thing worse. He's had his 5 minutes of fame. Let's let the guy move on and play football--which is what he is good at.
And that's all I got.
Thursday, January 24, 2013
Tuesday, January 22, 2013
Death Before Change. #MLBTheories
Good Ole Boys' Club.
The Old Guard.
Old School.
There are plenty of ways to state it. Baseball fans know what I'm talking about. It's unfortunate, but its reality. Baseball is an old-school sport. Always has been, most likely always will be. Tradition runs the table in terms of how the MLB views its morals, awards, statistics, player negotiations, etc, etc, etc. Death Before Change.
Modern Day Example 1: Beane, Billy.
Have you ever seen the movie Moneyball or read the book? Quality read, very good watch. Billy Beane was (and still is) the GM (General Manager) of the Oakland Athletics. After watching his 2001 playoff-caliber team decimated by top stars leaving via free agency, Beane took it upon himself to totally change the approach at building a winning team. He, along with Yale grad Peter Brand, developed (mostly) a new way to build a team using advanced statistical analysis and jump-started sabermetrics. He, Brand, and the A's caught just about as much flak as possible. The Old Guard, even those within his own organization, raised Cain about the issue...until the A's wrecked the old American League record for consecutive wins and made the playoffs. After the season, Beane and Brand were hot stuff, but both chose to stay with the small-market A's.
Why do I bring this up? It's one of the most mainstream examples of how tradition rules all in baseball. The sport was developed in the late 1800's and made popular in the early 1900's, and in many ways it hasn't left that era. Statistical analysis was one of those things slow to change. Sabermetrics still aren't completely standard. Most experts are relying on them and most GM's refer to them as a bible for player identification, but when it comes to using them to determine the MVP, Cy Young, Gold Glove, etc., the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) almost completely ignores them. Which is bad. Why use guesswork and popular vote to determine something that common sense and scientific fact can tell you in a moment? I'm not asking to completely replace human opinion from the awards tally, but I think the statistics can give a clearer picture of who really deserves the award.
Modern Day Example 2: 2012 AL MVP race.
Winner: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers.
Runner-Up: Mike Trout, Angels.
Winner by Sabermetrics: Mike Trout, Angels. WAR: 10.0
Traditional Statistics and Popular Vote: Miguel Cabrera. Triple Crown winner (led the league in BA, HR, RBI; first TC winner since 1967)
Mike Trout got screwed. If Josh Hamilton had done his job and homered in the final game of the 2012 regular season, Trout would have been the runaway MVP. It wouldn't have even been close. But since Cabrera did something not seen in 45 years by the old standards, nevermind Cabrera was worth 2.9 wins less to his team than Trout was (FanGraphs.com), the Writers Association went nuts and Cabrera shut down a rookie who had put up a total body of work only seen 2 or 3 times in the history of baseball. Unfortunate. Sad. Pathetic.
I could go on with examples and arguments. Free Agency. PED's. Bud Selig. Instant replay. Baseball is literally killing itself and its popularity with its old-school mindset. I can't count how many people I have talked to, read, or heard from that say that because of this their interest in the sport is dwindling. Football is taking over America as "America's Game" because they are progressive. Modern. Understandable. Baseball is inundated with old stats, old strategies, and old Politicians. I still love the sport; and that is the main reason I complain. I don't want to see this sport fail and lose popularity it so richly deserves. Baseball is the best sport, but the way it is handled is the worst.
And that's all I got.
The Old Guard.
Old School.
There are plenty of ways to state it. Baseball fans know what I'm talking about. It's unfortunate, but its reality. Baseball is an old-school sport. Always has been, most likely always will be. Tradition runs the table in terms of how the MLB views its morals, awards, statistics, player negotiations, etc, etc, etc. Death Before Change.
Modern Day Example 1: Beane, Billy.
Have you ever seen the movie Moneyball or read the book? Quality read, very good watch. Billy Beane was (and still is) the GM (General Manager) of the Oakland Athletics. After watching his 2001 playoff-caliber team decimated by top stars leaving via free agency, Beane took it upon himself to totally change the approach at building a winning team. He, along with Yale grad Peter Brand, developed (mostly) a new way to build a team using advanced statistical analysis and jump-started sabermetrics. He, Brand, and the A's caught just about as much flak as possible. The Old Guard, even those within his own organization, raised Cain about the issue...until the A's wrecked the old American League record for consecutive wins and made the playoffs. After the season, Beane and Brand were hot stuff, but both chose to stay with the small-market A's.
Why do I bring this up? It's one of the most mainstream examples of how tradition rules all in baseball. The sport was developed in the late 1800's and made popular in the early 1900's, and in many ways it hasn't left that era. Statistical analysis was one of those things slow to change. Sabermetrics still aren't completely standard. Most experts are relying on them and most GM's refer to them as a bible for player identification, but when it comes to using them to determine the MVP, Cy Young, Gold Glove, etc., the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) almost completely ignores them. Which is bad. Why use guesswork and popular vote to determine something that common sense and scientific fact can tell you in a moment? I'm not asking to completely replace human opinion from the awards tally, but I think the statistics can give a clearer picture of who really deserves the award.
Modern Day Example 2: 2012 AL MVP race.
Winner: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers.
Runner-Up: Mike Trout, Angels.
Winner by Sabermetrics: Mike Trout, Angels. WAR: 10.0
Traditional Statistics and Popular Vote: Miguel Cabrera. Triple Crown winner (led the league in BA, HR, RBI; first TC winner since 1967)
Mike Trout got screwed. If Josh Hamilton had done his job and homered in the final game of the 2012 regular season, Trout would have been the runaway MVP. It wouldn't have even been close. But since Cabrera did something not seen in 45 years by the old standards, nevermind Cabrera was worth 2.9 wins less to his team than Trout was (FanGraphs.com), the Writers Association went nuts and Cabrera shut down a rookie who had put up a total body of work only seen 2 or 3 times in the history of baseball. Unfortunate. Sad. Pathetic.
I could go on with examples and arguments. Free Agency. PED's. Bud Selig. Instant replay. Baseball is literally killing itself and its popularity with its old-school mindset. I can't count how many people I have talked to, read, or heard from that say that because of this their interest in the sport is dwindling. Football is taking over America as "America's Game" because they are progressive. Modern. Understandable. Baseball is inundated with old stats, old strategies, and old Politicians. I still love the sport; and that is the main reason I complain. I don't want to see this sport fail and lose popularity it so richly deserves. Baseball is the best sport, but the way it is handled is the worst.
And that's all I got.
Thursday, January 17, 2013
Time To Start Rebooting This Blog!
Well, hello again folks! Long time, no see. Which is completely unfortunate but this has been a relatively quiet offseason since I bailed on posting. There really haven't been mad rushes for the few superstar free agents that were on the market this year (Josh Hamilton, Zack Greinke, Michael Bourne). Greinke was drew the most news, and landed in the deep pockets of the Dodgers, teaming up with Clayton Kershaw and Josh Beckett at the top of the rotation. Bourne is still without a job. Hamilton ditched Texas for Anaheim, and I still don't think that the Angels are contenders. I'll discuss that some other time.
What was on my mind today is something different. What is the place of the knuckleball and knuckelballer in baseball?
I am in a discussion with one of my baseball junkie buds about whether the knuckleballer--specifically R.A. Dickey can ever be a legitimate ace. I say no-the knuckleball is too inconsistent of a pitch to completely be relied upon to carry a team. This is why I think Toronto overpaid. They're not getting a Cy Young pitcher. They are getting an EX-Cy Young pitcher who will be solid-but not what they paid for. I'll go as far to say that IF he stays healthy, Josh Johnson will be better, and Mark Buehrle will be more consistent if not as good as Dickey.
Here's why:
Dickey is moving to a MUCH more offensively-stacked division. The NL East? It really can't get any weaker offensively. The Braves are the best-and last year they were just solid. Nothing like the Yankees (yes, they're old, but they can still hit), Orioles (young, but good-they can still leave the park with the best of them) and the Red Sox. Tim Wakefield was the best modern-era knuckleballer to have any kind of success. He pitched for the Red Sox-and had a career ERA of 4.41 (FanGraphs.com). His career peripherals weren't that far off of Dickey's, and Dickey, once again, put those up in the NL East. Now, as my friend stated, Dickey's stuff is better than Wakefield's and his mental game is getting much better. I think Dickey will be successful, yes; but not consistent. I think that an ace should be the guy that goes out there and you know that he'll give you that good chance to win. Dickey, many games will give the Jays that chance; but he will implode at times. His last season was legendary as knuckleballers go. His pre-All Star break numbers were sick. His post-All Star stats regressed, and I think that those post-All Star break stats are closer to the mean.
Here's my 2013 Season Stats Projections for Dickey:
12-9 W/L
3.60 ERA
1.25 WHIP
6.8 K/9
3.2 WAR
My friends:
19-5 W/L
APPROX 3.25 ERA
8 K/9
3.7 WAR
And that's all I got.
What was on my mind today is something different. What is the place of the knuckleball and knuckelballer in baseball?
I am in a discussion with one of my baseball junkie buds about whether the knuckleballer--specifically R.A. Dickey can ever be a legitimate ace. I say no-the knuckleball is too inconsistent of a pitch to completely be relied upon to carry a team. This is why I think Toronto overpaid. They're not getting a Cy Young pitcher. They are getting an EX-Cy Young pitcher who will be solid-but not what they paid for. I'll go as far to say that IF he stays healthy, Josh Johnson will be better, and Mark Buehrle will be more consistent if not as good as Dickey.
Here's why:
Dickey is moving to a MUCH more offensively-stacked division. The NL East? It really can't get any weaker offensively. The Braves are the best-and last year they were just solid. Nothing like the Yankees (yes, they're old, but they can still hit), Orioles (young, but good-they can still leave the park with the best of them) and the Red Sox. Tim Wakefield was the best modern-era knuckleballer to have any kind of success. He pitched for the Red Sox-and had a career ERA of 4.41 (FanGraphs.com). His career peripherals weren't that far off of Dickey's, and Dickey, once again, put those up in the NL East. Now, as my friend stated, Dickey's stuff is better than Wakefield's and his mental game is getting much better. I think Dickey will be successful, yes; but not consistent. I think that an ace should be the guy that goes out there and you know that he'll give you that good chance to win. Dickey, many games will give the Jays that chance; but he will implode at times. His last season was legendary as knuckleballers go. His pre-All Star break numbers were sick. His post-All Star stats regressed, and I think that those post-All Star break stats are closer to the mean.
Here's my 2013 Season Stats Projections for Dickey:
12-9 W/L
3.60 ERA
1.25 WHIP
6.8 K/9
3.2 WAR
My friends:
19-5 W/L
APPROX 3.25 ERA
8 K/9
3.7 WAR
And that's all I got.
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