Well, hello again folks! Long time, no see. Which is completely unfortunate but this has been a relatively quiet offseason since I bailed on posting. There really haven't been mad rushes for the few superstar free agents that were on the market this year (Josh Hamilton, Zack Greinke, Michael Bourne). Greinke was drew the most news, and landed in the deep pockets of the Dodgers, teaming up with Clayton Kershaw and Josh Beckett at the top of the rotation. Bourne is still without a job. Hamilton ditched Texas for Anaheim, and I still don't think that the Angels are contenders. I'll discuss that some other time.
What was on my mind today is something different. What is the place of the knuckleball and knuckelballer in baseball?
I am in a discussion with one of my baseball junkie buds about whether the knuckleballer--specifically R.A. Dickey can ever be a legitimate ace. I say no-the knuckleball is too inconsistent of a pitch to completely be relied upon to carry a team. This is why I think Toronto overpaid. They're not getting a Cy Young pitcher. They are getting an EX-Cy Young pitcher who will be solid-but not what they paid for. I'll go as far to say that IF he stays healthy, Josh Johnson will be better, and Mark Buehrle will be more consistent if not as good as Dickey.
Here's why:
Dickey is moving to a MUCH more offensively-stacked division. The NL East? It really can't get any weaker offensively. The Braves are the best-and last year they were just solid. Nothing like the Yankees (yes, they're old, but they can still hit), Orioles (young, but good-they can still leave the park with the best of them) and the Red Sox. Tim Wakefield was the best modern-era knuckleballer to have any kind of success. He pitched for the Red Sox-and had a career ERA of 4.41 (FanGraphs.com). His career peripherals weren't that far off of Dickey's, and Dickey, once again, put those up in the NL East. Now, as my friend stated, Dickey's stuff is better than Wakefield's and his mental game is getting much better. I think Dickey will be successful, yes; but not consistent. I think that an ace should be the guy that goes out there and you know that he'll give you that good chance to win. Dickey, many games will give the Jays that chance; but he will implode at times. His last season was legendary as knuckleballers go. His pre-All Star break numbers were sick. His post-All Star stats regressed, and I think that those post-All Star break stats are closer to the mean.
Here's my 2013 Season Stats Projections for Dickey:
12-9 W/L
3.60 ERA
1.25 WHIP
6.8 K/9
3.2 WAR
My friends:
19-5 W/L
APPROX 3.25 ERA
8 K/9
3.7 WAR
And that's all I got.
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