Tuesday, January 22, 2013

Death Before Change. #MLBTheories

Good Ole Boys' Club.
The Old Guard.
Old School.

There are plenty of ways to state it. Baseball fans know what I'm talking about. It's unfortunate, but its reality. Baseball is an old-school sport. Always has been, most likely always will be. Tradition runs the table in terms of how the MLB views its morals, awards, statistics, player negotiations, etc, etc, etc. Death Before Change.

Modern Day Example 1: Beane, Billy.
Have you ever seen the movie Moneyball or read the book? Quality read, very good watch. Billy Beane was (and still is) the GM (General Manager) of the Oakland Athletics. After watching his 2001 playoff-caliber team decimated by top stars leaving via free agency, Beane took it upon himself to totally change the approach at building a winning team. He, along with Yale grad Peter Brand, developed (mostly) a new way to build a team using advanced statistical analysis and jump-started sabermetrics. He, Brand, and the A's caught just about as much flak as possible. The Old Guard, even those within his own organization, raised Cain about the issue...until the A's wrecked the old American League record for consecutive wins and made the playoffs. After the season, Beane and Brand were hot stuff, but both chose to stay with the small-market A's.

Why do I bring this up? It's one of the most mainstream examples of how tradition rules all in baseball. The sport was developed in the late 1800's and made popular in the early 1900's, and in many ways it hasn't left that era. Statistical analysis was one of those things slow to change. Sabermetrics still aren't completely standard. Most experts are relying on them and most GM's refer to them as a bible for player identification, but when it comes to using them to determine the MVP, Cy Young, Gold Glove, etc., the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) almost completely ignores them. Which is bad. Why use guesswork and popular vote to determine something that common sense and scientific fact can tell you in a moment? I'm not asking to completely replace human opinion from the awards tally, but I think the statistics can give a clearer picture of who really deserves the award.

Modern Day Example 2: 2012 AL MVP race.
Winner: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers.
Runner-Up: Mike Trout, Angels.
Winner by Sabermetrics: Mike Trout, Angels. WAR: 10.0
Traditional Statistics and Popular Vote: Miguel Cabrera. Triple Crown winner (led the league in BA, HR, RBI; first TC winner since 1967)

Mike Trout got screwed. If Josh Hamilton had done his job and homered in the final game of the 2012 regular season, Trout would have been the runaway MVP. It wouldn't have even been close. But since Cabrera did something not seen in 45 years by the old standards, nevermind Cabrera was worth 2.9 wins less to his team than Trout was (FanGraphs.com), the Writers Association went nuts and Cabrera shut down a rookie who had put up a total body of work only seen 2 or 3 times in the history of baseball. Unfortunate. Sad. Pathetic.

I could go on with examples and arguments. Free Agency. PED's. Bud Selig. Instant replay. Baseball is literally killing itself and its popularity with its old-school mindset. I can't count how many people I have talked to, read, or heard from that say that because of this their interest in the sport is dwindling. Football is taking over America as "America's Game" because they are progressive. Modern. Understandable. Baseball is inundated with old stats, old strategies, and old Politicians. I still love the sport; and that is the main  reason I complain. I don't want to see this sport fail and lose popularity it so richly deserves. Baseball is the best sport, but the way it is handled is the worst.

And that's all I got.

1 comment:

  1. very well said. I wish a post like this could be forced onto the desk of Bud Selig. well, I wish that, and also that he would be capable of comprehending it.

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