Wednesday, September 5, 2012

But why?

Alright so this is old news, but I feel that I have to address this and throw my two cents out on the table on it: Why the heck are the Washington Nationals shutting down Stephen Strasburg???? ...Besides the fact that he is coming back from Tommy John surgury.
Let's take a look at it via the raw data:
2012 Season Stats
Win/Loss: 15-6
Innings Pitched: 156.1
ERA: 2.94
WHIP: 1.12
K: 195
Solid stats, right? The two stats that stick out to me are the ERA and the K's. These two really show his dominance, but the ERA can be manipulated and can give a slightly inaccurate view on success. So, lets look a little closer (if you need help with any of these stats click here):
FIP: 2.64
K/9: 11.23
WAR: 4.6
BABIP: .310
Alright. So yeah. Let me interpret these stats: basically they all show that Strasburg has been getting unlucky so far this year. Yeah. That's right. Unlucky. The FIP means that if his defense behind him was perfect, Strasburg's ERA would drop by three tenths. His BABIP is on the high side--more balls that were put in play fell in for hits than probably should have, be it bad defense or just good placement. The fact that Strasburg can pull a sub-3.00 ERA and have a BABIP this high is incredible. Here's why:
LOB% (Left on base percent): 75.9%
HR/9: .75
Basically Strasburg shuts it down when there are runners on base. He also gives up almost NO home runs: less than 1 HR in a 9 inning game. Going back to the WAR, his rating of 4.6 is crazy good for a starting pitcher.  Basically this means that Strasburg wins close to 5 more games for the Nats than the Nats with a replacement. Being that a SP only plays in 28-32 games a year, winning +5 more games out of 32 is just flat incredible.
So...final thoughts. Yes, I see where the doctors are coming from and why the Nats would want to shut down Strasburg. He's still coming back from Tommy John and therefore an injury risk. In my opinion, he's ALWAYS gonna be an injury risk. His throwing motion is gonna kill his arm and I feel he's a time bomb. Nothing is gonna change that. Not shutting him down early especially. They may cite shutting Jordan Zimmerman down as a valid reason for doing the same to Strasburg, but the dynamics of the seasons are completely and totally different. Last time they weren't a World Series contender. The simple fact is that you don't get the chance to play in a Series every year (except the Yankees...) even if you have basically the same team from year to year.
Basically the Nats, in an idealistic campaign to preserve their ace, are shutting him down right at the most important time in what I feel is their most important season--a season when they finally break through and become contenders. They can show this year that they belong, but not without Strasburg. I think it's a fatal decision, but on September 12, it all becomes irrelevant. He'll be done, and so will the Nats' World Series hopes.

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